This topic focuses on developing a comprehensive modelling framework to understand how chemical pollutants move through terrestrial environments and impact biodiversity at multiple biological levels — from genes and species to functional diversity and ecosystem services.

Objectives

• To provide a set of terrestrial source-to-receptor pathways for chemicals and compare them against receptor limits for these chemicals.
• To characterise the link between terrestrial ecotoxicity effects to damage on species and genetic diversity.
• To derive metrics and associations for damage on multi-trophic functional diversity and delivery damage on selected ecosystem services.

Work being carried out

Our source-to-damage modelling framework to quantify the effects of chemical pollution on biodiversity

Modelling the Impact of Chemical Pollution on Biodiversity

We model the distribution and fate of selected chemicals across different compartments (air, water, and soil) using geospatial multimedia models (i.e., Pangea), as shown in the Figure below for the concentration of Lambda-Cyhalothrin in freshwater and agricultural soil. And link these exposure patterns to ecological impacts across multiple levels of biological organization.

Maps showing the distribution of Lambda-Cyhalothrin (insecticide field application) in Europe, as an output from Pangea

Species Diversity

Our approach links ecotoxicity, expressed as the multi-substance Potentially Affected Fraction of species (msPAF) for a chemical mixture, to observed biodiversity impacts. By calibrating this relationship using biomonitoring data, we estimate the Potentially Disappeared Fraction of species (PDF) as the final impact metric indicating species loss across ecotoxicity gradients.

Genetic Diversity

We assess the impacts of chemical pollution on genetic diversity by integrating chemical activity data with existing knowledge on genetic variability within and across species. By working with publicly available datasets, we form connections between potential chemical exposures and genetic variability in wild populations. These purely computational methods aim to address some of the challenges in lab and field assessments of chemical impacts on genetically diverse populations by filling knowledge gaps and highlighting areas for further assessment.

Functional Diversity

We quantify the potentially affected fraction of functional diversity with a focus on functional richness by linking species-specific toxicity data to species abundance and trait information, where different traits are associated with different ecological functions.

Ecosystem Services

We evaluate the effects of chemical stress on key ecosystem functions for species with ample exposure and ecotoxicity data. Using chemical interference on the roles that species play in certain ecosystem functions, we aim to understand how pollution alters service delivery.

All models will be trained and validated using empirical observations and secondary datasets, supported by those provided by our monitoring objectives, ensuring robust and data-driven outcomes.